Analysis Forecasts 140% Rise in Basal Cell Carcinoma Incidence by 2050

An analysis projected that incident basal cell carcinoma (BCC) among adults aged 65 years and older could rise by roughly 140% by 2050.

The report frames these figures as outputs from an international observational assessment and forecasting exercise rather than results from an interventional study. In that context, it describes a growing burden over recent decades and presents projections extending to mid-century. The report also highlights reported baseline burden estimates, demographic and regional patterns, and several drivers the authors cited for upward trends.

Investigators used Global Burden of Disease data covering 1990 through 2021, with projections out to 2050, drawing on information from 204 countries. For adults aged 65 years and older, the analysis estimated 2.8 million BCC cases in 2021 and an incidence rate of 371.97 per 100,000 population. Looking ahead, newly diagnosed BCC cases were projected to increase by about 140% by 2050, alongside a 43.75% increase in BCC-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). These values are model-derived estimates and projections.

Across the burden metrics described, men were reported to have higher values than women across skin cancer types, and higher burden was also described in high–sociodemographic index (SDI) countries. The report attributed this skew, in part, to access to care and surveillance alongside increased UV exposure.

It also placed BCC projections within a broader set of skin cancer estimates for older adults. It reported that BCC had the highest incidence among the skin cancers assessed, while squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was described as having the highest mortality and DALY burden. The report also stated that melanoma metrics were expected to decline over the projection period, contrasting with the upward trajectories described for other metrics. This comparative framing emphasizes distinct patterns across BCC, SCC, and melanoma rather than a uniform trend across skin cancer types.

In the report’s conclusion, the authors stated that skin cancer burden in adults aged 65 years or older is rising—particularly among men and in high-SDI countries—and wrote, “Our results underscore the urgency to enact prevention and treatment strategies tailored to high-risk older populations.”

Key Takeaways:

• Recent research reported substantial projected increases in BCC burden by 2050 alongside high baseline burden estimates in adults aged 65 years and older.
• Higher burden was reported in men and in high-SDI countries, with the authors citing population growth, aging, cumulative UV exposure, and surveillance/access to care as contributors to upward trends.
• In cross-type comparisons, BCC was highest in incidence, SCC was highest in mortality and DALYs, and melanoma metrics was projected to decline.